Key Takeaways
- The Federal Open Market Committee kept its target rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on a 9-3 vote, according to the Federal Reserve Board.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported second-quarter GDP grew 1.5%, below the 2% analysts had forecast, while year-over-year PCE eased to 3.7% in June from 4.1% in May.
- U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), rose 1.08% for the week, with the Dow Jones ETF (DIA) up 1.10%.
- Consumer discretionary, via the sector ETF (XLY), was the strongest area in the data at 6.07%, while utilities (XLU) fell 4.21%.
- Crude oil, as measured by the WTI ETF (USO), dropped 5.49% after reports that Iran would suspend attacks amid a pause in hostilities.
Markets at a Glance
July 27 – July 31, 2026
1-week total return by segment, via ETF proxies, measured from the prior week’s final close (Jul 24, 2026) through the Jul 31, 2026 close. Bars share one scale across groups.
Equities
Bonds
Sectors
Alternatives
Factors
Weekly Recap
Broad equity markets moved higher in the week ending July 31, 2026. U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), gained 1.08%, and the Dow Jones ETF (DIA) rose 1.10%. Larger-capitalization technology names weighed on the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), which advanced a more modest 0.55%, while small-cap stocks, via the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), were essentially flat at 0.02%.
International markets outpaced the U.S. this week. The international developed markets ETF (EFA) climbed 2.15% and the MSCI World ETF (URTH) rose 1.38%, while the emerging markets ETF (EEM) added 1.20%. The dispersion within markets was notable, a reminder that headline index moves can mask meaningful differences beneath the surface.
What Moved Markets This Week
According to the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Open Market Committee decided on July 29 to maintain its target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in a 9-3 vote. Separately, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that GDP grew 1.5% in the second quarter, below the 2% growth analysts had forecast. The PCE index declined 0.1% sequentially in June, and on a year-over-year basis PCE rose 3.7% in June after increasing 4.1% in May.
Several widely reported corporate results provided context for sector moves. As reported by CNBC, Amazon rose sharply in premarket trading after better-than-expected second-quarter revenue aided by cloud computing, a factor consistent with the strength in the consumer discretionary sector ETF (XLY), which led the data. Apple declined after issuing weak current-quarter guidance citing supply constraints, and semiconductor shares recovered following upbeat results from Microsoft, a mixed backdrop that helped keep the technology sector ETF (XLK) modestly lower at -0.34%. United Parcel Service reported revenue above estimates. In commodities, oil prices fell after reports that Iran would suspend attacks as long as a U.S. pause in hostilities remained in place.
Equities and Sectors
Sector performance was widely dispersed. The strongest sector in the data was consumer discretionary, with the sector ETF (XLY) up 6.07%, followed by communication services (XLC) at 1.81%, financials (XLF) at 1.10%, and consumer staples (XLP) at 1.09%. On the other end, the utilities ETF (XLU) fell 4.21%, real estate (XLRE) declined 1.96%, materials (XLB) lost 1.66%, and industrials (XLI) fell 1.57%. Energy (XLE) slipped 0.12% even though its one-month figure remains up 12.76%.
Among country markets, the China ETF (MCHI) rose 4.63%, the Germany ETF (EWG) gained 4.23%, and the India ETF (INDA) added 3.75%. The South Korea ETF (EWY) fell 3.41% and the Taiwan ETF (EWT) declined 1.52%, though both retain very large one-year gains of 118.49% and 73.04%, respectively.
Fixed Income, Rates, and Commodities
Bond returns were mixed and generally muted after the Fed held rates steady. The U.S. aggregate bond ETF (AGG) was roughly flat at -0.08%, the short-term bond ETF (SHY) rose 0.18%, and the intermediate bond ETF (IEF) slipped 0.09%. Longer-duration bonds fell the most, with the long-term Treasury ETF (TLT) down 1.20%. Credit was steady, as the investment-grade corporate bond ETF (LQD) edged up 0.04% and the high yield ETF (HYG) gained 0.32%.
Commodities were broadly lower. The WTI crude oil ETF (USO) dropped 5.49%, the broad commodities ETF (DJP) fell 2.37%, and precious metals were little changed, with the gold ETF (GLD) at -0.10% and the silver ETF (SLV) at -0.42%. Over the past year, several of these have posted large moves, including USO at 59.40% and SLV at 56.28%, illustrating how short-term direction can diverge from longer trailing periods.
Factors and Style
Factor strategies isolate specific traits within the market. This week the results split clearly. The quality factor ETF (QUAL), which emphasizes companies with steadier profitability, rose 1.11%, and the low volatility ETF (USMV), which favors stocks with smaller historical price swings, gained 0.99%. In contrast, the momentum factor ETF (MTUM), which tilts toward recent outperformers, fell 2.19%, and the value factor ETF (VLUE), which favors cheaper valuations, declined 1.83%. The high dividend ETF (VYM) slipped 0.20%.
Within the style box, large-cap stocks led smaller ones, and value led growth at the top of the market. The large value ETF (IWD) rose 1.43% while the large growth ETF (IWF) gained 0.59%. Mid- and small-cap segments were mostly flat to slightly positive, with the small value ETF (IWN) the lone decliner at -0.17%. The gap between large value's 29.86% one-year return and large growth's 7.93% underscores how style leadership can shift over longer windows.
What This Means for Long-Term Investors
This week's data showed how varied returns can be beneath a positive headline index, as consumer discretionary rose 6.07% while utilities fell 4.21%, international developed stocks outpaced U.S. large caps, and long-term Treasuries and crude oil declined even as several defensive and quality-oriented segments held up. For diversified, long-term investors, one reason advisers monitor breadth across sectors, styles, factors, and regions is that leadership rotates from week to week, and holding a mix of segments can help smooth the effect of any single area's short-term swings within the context of a multi-year horizon.
Performance figures reflect ETF proxies for each market segment. Weekly returns are measured from the prior week’s final close (July 24, 2026) through the July 31, 2026 close; month and year figures are anchored to the same ending close. Dates reflect actual trading sessions, so market holidays can shift them.
This commentary is provided by Rubric Advisors, a California-registered investment adviser, for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice, is not a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for an investment decision. Market segment performance is measured using exchange-traded fund (ETF) proxies, which reflect fund expenses and may differ from their underlying indices; figures are unaudited and drawn from third-party data believed reliable but not guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Options strategies are not suitable for all investors, and private market investments are available only to qualified clients.