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Rubric Advisors · Disciplined Wealth Management · 100% Fiduciary Commitment · Fee Only
Rubric Advisors · 100% Fiduciary · Fee Only
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Test withdrawal rates from 3% to 6% against historical market conditions. Find the balance between income and longevity.
This simulator tests different withdrawal rates against historical market returns using a rolling-period analysis. Rather than using average returns (which hide volatility), it replays actual sequences of good and bad years to test whether a given withdrawal rate would have survived different market environments.
Based on rolling 30-year periods using a diversified portfolio
| Rate | Annual Income | Monthly Income | Success | Median End Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | $30,000 | $2,500 | 100% | $2,001,137 |
| 3.5% | $35,000 | $2,917 | 100% | $1,475,893 |
| 4% | $40,000 | $3,333 | 100% | $1,077,800 |
| 4.5% | $45,000 | $3,750 | 100% | $619,321 |
| 5% | $50,000 | $4,167 | 57% | $126,911 |
| 5.5% | $55,000 | $4,583 | 19% | $0 |
| 6% | $60,000 | $5,000 | 5% | $0 |
The 4% rule as a starting point. At a 4% withdrawal rate, a $1,000,000 portfolio provides $40,000/year ($3,333/month) in initial retirement income, increasing with inflation each year. But your ideal rate depends on your specific situation — tax strategy, Social Security timing, and spending flexibility all play a role.
This simulator uses simplified historical return sequences for a diversified portfolio and is for illustrative purposes only. It does not account for taxes, fees, sequence-of-returns risk in full detail, or individual circumstances. Actual results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making withdrawal decisions. Rubric Advisors, LLC accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of this tool.
All computation happens in your browser. No data leaves your device.
This simulator is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It uses simplified historical return sequences and does not account for taxes, fees, or individual circumstances. Actual withdrawal sustainability depends on many factors including asset allocation, tax situation, Social Security benefits, and spending flexibility. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making retirement withdrawal decisions. Rubric Advisors, LLC accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of this tool. All computation happens entirely in your browser and no data is transmitted or stored.
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