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Bear Markets: What They Are and How Investors Can Prepare

A bear market is commonly defined as a 20% or greater drop from a recent high. Preparation, liquidity, and a rebalancing plan matter more than predictions.

Bear Markets: What They Are and How Investors Can Prepare

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What is a bear market?

  • A bear market is commonly defined as a decline of 20% or more in a broad stock index from its recent high.
  • A correction usually refers to a smaller decline, often 10% to 20%.
  • Bear markets vary widely in depth and length, and no one can reliably predict when one will start or end.
  • Past U.S. bear markets have eventually been followed by recoveries, but the timing has varied greatly and future results may differ.

Full Guide

What is a bear market?

  • A bear market is commonly defined as a decline of 20% or more in a broad stock index from its recent high.
  • A correction usually refers to a smaller decline, often 10% to 20%.
  • Bear markets vary widely in depth and length, and no one can reliably predict when one will start or end.
  • Past U.S. bear markets have eventually been followed by recoveries, but the timing has varied greatly and future results may differ.

How is a recession different from a bear market?

  • A recession is a significant, widespread decline in economic activity; in the U.S., the NBER's dating committee identifies its start and end.
  • A bear market is a decline in stock prices, and the two often, but not always, overlap.
  • Stock prices look ahead, so markets can fall before a recession is recognized and rise before it ends.
  • Waiting for economic data to improve before reinvesting can mean missing part of a market recovery.

What mistakes are common during a bear market?

  • Selling everything to cash turns a paper loss into a realized one and requires a second correct call to get back in.
  • Stopping regular retirement contributions means buying fewer shares when prices are lower.
  • Making large allocation changes in response to headlines can leave a portfolio misaligned with its goals.
  • Borrowing to buy more can magnify losses if prices keep falling.

What actions do investors consider during a downturn?

  • Rebalancing back to target allocation means trimming what held up better and adding to what fell.
  • Tax-loss harvesting can realize losses to offset gains, subject to the wash-sale rule.
  • Lower prices can make Roth conversions or gifts of shares worth reviewing with a CPA.
  • Confirming that near-term spending is covered by cash or short-term bonds reduces pressure to sell stocks at low prices.

Who faces the most risk in a bear market?

  • People who need to withdraw money soon, such as new retirees, face sequence-of-returns risk: early losses combined with withdrawals can shorten how long a portfolio lasts.
  • Tech employees can see job risk and a large employer-stock position fall at the same time.
  • Investors using margin or securities-backed loans can face collateral calls that force sales.
  • These risks are easier to address in planning before a downturn than during one.

Key takeaways

  • A bear market is a drop of 20% or more from a recent high, and its length and depth are unpredictable.
  • Selling to cash requires two correct timing calls and can lock in losses.
  • Rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting, and continued contributions are common responses, each with trade-offs.
  • Cash reserves and a stress-tested plan reduce the chance of being forced to sell at low prices.