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Emerging Markets Investing: Growth Potential and Key Risks

Emerging markets are developing economies with growth potential and more political, currency, governance and liquidity risk than developed markets.

Emerging Markets Investing: Growth Potential and Key Risks

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What are emerging markets?

  • Emerging markets are economies with developing financial markets, middle incomes and less mature regulation than developed markets.
  • Index providers classify countries by economic size, market liquidity and access for foreign investors, and their lists differ.
  • South Korea, for example, is classified as emerging by some index providers and developed by others.
  • Investors reach these markets through funds, U.S.-listed depositary receipts, or indirectly through multinationals.

Full Guide

What are emerging markets?

  • Emerging markets are economies with developing financial markets, middle incomes and less mature regulation than developed markets.
  • Index providers classify countries by economic size, market liquidity and access for foreign investors, and their lists differ.
  • South Korea, for example, is classified as emerging by some index providers and developed by others.
  • Investors reach these markets through funds, U.S.-listed depositary receipts, or indirectly through multinationals.

Why do investors consider emerging markets?

  • They add exposure to economies and companies not represented in U.S. indexes.
  • Younger populations and rising incomes can support faster economic growth.
  • Faster GDP growth doesn't necessarily mean higher stock returns, because returns depend on prices paid, share dilution and how profits reach shareholders.
  • Valuations are often lower than in developed markets, frequently for identifiable reasons such as governance or political risk.

What are the political and governance risks?

  • Policy reversals, capital controls, sanctions and expropriation are more common than in developed markets.
  • Accounting and disclosure standards vary, and many foreign companies don't file reports with the SEC.
  • Many U.S.-listed companies with Chinese operations use a variable interest entity structure, in which shareholders own a shell company rather than the operating business.
  • State-owned enterprises may put government goals ahead of minority shareholders.

How does currency risk affect returns?

  • For a U.S. investor, returns are converted back to dollars, so a weaker local currency reduces returns.
  • Emerging market currencies can fall sharply during capital flight.
  • Hedging is expensive or unavailable for many of these currencies.
  • Local-currency bonds carry both credit risk and currency risk.

Practical considerations for investors

  • Emerging market stocks have historically been more volatile than developed-market stocks, with deep drawdowns.
  • Trading costs, fund expenses and liquidity are generally less favorable than in the U.S.
  • Dividends often have foreign tax withheld; the foreign tax credit can offset it in taxable accounts but not in IRAs.
  • Broad funds can still be concentrated, so country and sector weights are worth reviewing.

Key takeaways

  • Emerging markets add different economic exposure, with higher political, governance and currency risk.
  • Economic growth and stock returns are not the same thing.
  • Corporate structures such as VIEs can limit what shareholders actually own.
  • Costs, taxes and fund concentration affect net results.